Apr 132023

Bears made their presence felt yesterday with price breaking below 166 and hitting 165.40. Bulls marked the close slightly above previous day’s close at 166.20. This leads us to a continued series of white candles with higher highs and higher lows.

This morning, we are seeing bulls trying to control 166.00 level again and is currently forming somewhat of a bullish triangle pattern. Bullish traders can hold on to this pattern formation for their trades.

Fundamental roadblocks ahead for bullish trades are UK’s GDP Data at 2pm (GMT+8) as well as US’s PPI and Unemployment at 830am (GMT+8). These events, with expectations lower than previous releases may hamper bullish moves.

Personally, I prefer buying at the low side of a trading day’s session. My immediate bias is bearish for the price to drop down so I won’t hesitate taking a short trade when the setup forms. My main bias is to go long if the price has drop to down to acceptable levels with a nice 1 to 2-hour compression.

From yesterday’s short trade ^^

Apr 122023

Zooming in the M15 chart, we are seeing a head and shoulder pattern. The initial signal came towards the close of the Asian session. Bears touched 166.00 twice. Another run down to that area could just break the floor. Conservative targets would be 165.70 and 165.20.

Apr 122023

Bulls have been relentlessly pushing price up marking daily higher highs and higher lows. We may soon see a break of 166.40.

With a massive movement like this, most would think that we should buy into the trend. However, I still think otherwise as markets tend to be mostly ranging than trending. Another reason is that this move hasn’t corrected yet and it is prudent to wait for a correction before going long.

My approach would be to trade against the prevailing trend and the key setup I would be looking for is a compression of price action. Monday was a huge 1% move. Yesterday, the volatility dropped by more than half. If market continues to compress throughout the Asian session to London Session, then we might see a signal forming soon.

We have a series of events tonight at 830pm (GMT+8) from US and Canada. Could these events cause price to respect the resistance at 166.40?

Apr 112023

Bulls rampaged through 165.00 yesterday right after a quick sell from 164.50 to 164.00. This huge move could continue on but buying at the highs seems risky for now.

I am stepping on the sidelines for now to wait for a good setup for a long entry. Perhaps a drop and a quick compression at key levels?

Apr 102023

Bulls has made a come back since Thursday while the bears went off for a break this Lent. Higher high and higher low markings are starting to form but we are still within the bearish price action from last Tuesday to Wednesday so technically we should be predominantly bearish.

We see a good compression in today’s Asian session. The breakdown of 164.50 has just begun, a clear short signal to take.

Bulls will try to protect their near-term key levels at 164, 163.50, 162.75.

Apr 062023

Now it’s confirmed. We have entered bearish phase. Dailies show the significant break of higher high and higher low.

I plotted areas where it is best to short:
23.6% = 163.65
38.2% = 164.15
50% & previous day’s high = 164.60
61.8% = 165.00

For bullish traders, there’s a small window of opportunity to enter now at 164.10.