Allow me to give more detail on how I trade FX to give a clearer picture on how I find setups.
First off, I analyse the markets both technically and fundamentally. The technical aspect is to find possible levels of entry as well as spotting how the market is behaving in specific currencies. Given the fact that I don’t set stop losses and I do position trading, I use fundamentals to back up my positions in short to medium term.
Now here’s a rundown on the technical tools I use:
– H4, D, W (mostly D)
– Support and Resistance levels
– Fibonacci Retracement
– Trend Lines
– Chart Patterns
– Price Action
– Harmonic Patterns only if present
I place more value in searching for levels of entry more than the price action itself. This means, I tend to anticipate more than entering at confirmation but when confirmation does appear, it doesn’t necessarily keep me from entering a trade. I would also buy the pullback after a confirmation. The approach is more strategic than systematic.
For fundamentals, I set my biases based on the monetary policy guidance of Central Banks. Any intent to tighten monetary policy sets me to go long while any intent to ease will set me to go short. The data that comes in between the policy guidance and the actual rate hike is what I view as headwinds or catalysts. When data aligns with policy guidance, then it’s a catalyst. When data is against policy guidance, then it’s a headwind that may lead to an opportunity to enter.