May 292020

Tonight (no specific time), President Trump will be holding a presser specifically to address China issues. He will most likely show a hard stance on China especially now that US elections is just around the corner. The American people and even the whole world is looking at how he will treat China on Covid-19. A hard stance is the only way to prove how serious he is.

The market will most likely react negatively on this. If safe havens rise and close high, we might see a continuation to next week. Nevertheless any rise in safe haven will be a chance to get on risky assets at good bargain levels.

May 292020

FED Chairman Powell will be speaking tonight in a panel discussion at 11PM (GMT+8). Three things can happen.

1. Nothing will happen – market being immuned to what the FED chairman’s tone for the past week might not react to anything he’ll say.

2. He can say how bad the state of the economy will be without stressing the support of the FED through stimulus packages. This could just provide a breather to the market’s ascent. USD and JPY might gain out of this.

3. He steps on the risk accelerator pedal by stressing the unlimited support of the FED. This could drive the market to break recent resistance levels and push the markets higher. Risky currencies AUD and NZD will move up as well as Gold.

Among the 3 different scenarios, #2 would be the ideal outcome because this will give opportunity to go long in the market. The market is overall risk-on scenario because of the stimulus packages. A little bit of fear can cause dips for the bulls to get in. I’d go long AUD or NZD.

If market breaks out further (scenario #3), shorting AUD or NZD may be very risky. Perhaps a more neutral currency like EUR or GBP might just be a good compromise.

May 262020

Given that all bad news have minimal impact on the market, risky assets continue to be the choice for traders.

XAU, AUD, NZD and CAD are still taking the lead.

Tomorrow 5AM (GMT+8) RBNZ will providing a Financial Stability Report while BOC’s Poloz will be testifying. If these two events provide volatility, then there might be good setups to trade.

If NZD goes down, I’d go long on NZDJPY, NZDUSD or short GBPNZD.
If NZD goes up, I’d go long AUDNZD or XAUNZD.

If CAD goes down, I’d go long on CADJPY or short GBPCAD, EURCAD.
If CAD goes up, I’d go long AUDCAD or XAUDCAD.

UK Claimant Count Change

 Posted by at 1:32 PM  FX Market
May 192020

UK will be releasing Claimant Count Change today at 2PM (GMT+8).

Since market has been obviously artificially inflated by injecting unlimited stimulus, my call is to favour greed in this trade.

If GBP moves positively, short options would be GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD.

If GBP moves negatively, long options would be GBPUSD and GBPJPY.

Basis of entry would be retracement to previous day’s range.

BRENT Oil Short

 Posted by at 3:09 PM  FX Market
May 132020

Entry 27.70-28.50 TP 23.20

BRENT Oil Short by traderh on