Trader H

TraderH is a foreign currencies trader and a former Certified Securities Representative in the Philippine equities market. All posts herein are personal views and are not endorsed by any organization whatsoever. It is important that you practice due diligence in your trade plans. This website and its authors will not be held responsible nor liable to any of the reader's losses.

AUDJPY Short

 Posted by at 1:27 AM  FX Market
Jun 262020
 

Market continues to be listless for the 4th day. Although equities has moved quite significantly, Yen seemed to be more flat.

Overall, AUDJPY is expected to be in a range of 76.5 to 72.5 with a bearish tilt. The bearish taper is what make this look attractive to short and it coincides closely to DJI.

Fundamentally, tug of war continues between Covid and the FED. The sudden rise in Covid cases this week failed to put a dent on the market. On the flip side, President Trump’s announcement of a new $1 Trillion stimulus package failed to ignite the bulls as well.

Tomorrow will be the last day of the trading week and we shall see where the market will really take this – up or down. Monday should be something to look forward to as we have gone through two gap down Mondays, which was the trend when the crisis started last February.

AUDJPY Short:

Entry 73ish, TP 70.00

I would pay attention to price breaking previous day’s high and should signify a short-term rally back up. Either stop out, stop and reverse, or hedge against it. Another option is to just accumulate shorts from 73 to 77.



AUDJPY Short by traderh on TradingView.com

Unilateral Moves on GBP

 Posted by at 7:11 PM  FX Market
Jun 182020
 

BOE released their Official Bank Rate and Policy Guidance. GBP is rallying up unilaterally. Ideal trade here is to short GBP against AUD, CAD or NZD.

Jun 182020
 

Last night, FED Chairman Powell failed to push the market higher as he stayed on status quo on FOMC’s QE plan. Equities market ended lower by 0.5% after seesawing most of the day. Futures plunged 300 points deep during Asian session. Although it has recovered those losses, we may just see some more selling soon as market lacks fresh stimulus to go higher.

Bulls are in a delicate position as a few more Covid-19 stories may easily tip the scale to the bear’s favor.

Asian session started with bad data from New Zealand and Australia. Both currencies recuperated but are hitting key resistance levels.

What else can push the market higher now?

Bank of England will be announcing policy rates at 7PM (GMT+8).

Trade Opportunity for Today:

Entry 73.5, SL 73.8, TP 72.50



AUDJPY Short by traderh on TradingView.com

GBP at Play Today

 Posted by at 3:01 PM  FX Market
Jun 172020
 

UK release some CPI and PPI data a while ago at 2PM (GMT+8). Sterling is currently moving positive against USD and JPY and negative against AUD and NZD. It seems that the market is still on a risk-on scenario.

However, it is important to not that equities last night closed flat after FED Chairman’s testimony. This may provide guidance that the FED failed to ignite the bulls’ appetite. Futures is also flat.

Sterling play I am seeing is a short against safe havens USD or JPY when it rallies to bargain levels.

UPDATE:

Given DJI Futures pulling back from resistance and walking on a tightrope, my forecast is for the market to generally be risk-off.

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 20.49.47

Play is a GBPAUD Long at 1.82, SL -25pips, TP +100. Judging by the charts, this pair seems to provide the least resistance compared to going short GBPUSD.



GBPAUD Long by traderh on TradingView.com

US Data and Powell

 Posted by at 9:57 PM  FX Market
Jun 162020
 

US released Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data tonight 830PM (GMT+8). Results beat expectations and this pushed USD lower. Market reacted to step on the greed pedal so risky currencies AUD, NZD and CAD is going up. Sterling is up against USD as well.

It is notable that USD is stronger with EUR despite EUR released positive data as well (acting as a laggard).

Although currencies are moving after these data releases, it is prudent to wait after the testimony of FED Chairman Powell at 10PM (GMT+8). This is the meat of the day. Will he be as dovish again this time to bring the markets down or will he turn hawkish knowing that DJIA plunged 7% the last time he spoke?

It’s a tricky situation.

Market has suddenly turned bullish since yesterday. This could just be a technical rebound off a massive sell off. The rally up tonight could just be met with sellers to mark that the high from last week a top for now.

Play for tonight is to short if risky currencies against USD if it goes up and buy the same if drops down. Take away a 40-pip move.

UPDATE:

EURUSD Long: Entry 1.123, Stop -40 pips, TP +50 pips



EURUSD Long by traderh on TradingView.com

UK Claimant Count Today

 Posted by at 2:43 PM  FX Market
Jun 162020
 

UK Claimant Count Today released at 2PM (GMT+8) with more claims (528) than expected (405). As of press time 2:39PM, market has just started to digest the news. Moves among along Sterling pairs are not unified. GBP is strong against risky currencies AUD, CAD and NZD. On the other hand, weak against safe haven currencies USD and JPY.

Since market has been risk since last night. It’s better to go short GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCAD or long GBPUSD, GBPJPY.

UPDATE:

GBPUSD: Entry 1.2605, Stop -30pips, TP +30pips



GBPUSD Long by traderh on TradingView.com

OPTIONAL TRADE:

GBPJPY Long: Entry 135.4, Stop -45pips, TP +55pips



GBPJPY Long by traderh on TradingView.com