Aug 082017
 

Why is it unwise to dump your shares in local equities while historically ghost month August is known to be a period of consolidation? The chart of the PSEi is actually telling us that the index is closer to breaking out of historical high 8140 than dropping down. Considering all things remain, no war breaks out in the Korean peninsula or anything of that sort, we are seeing the index to push all time high really soon.

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 23.01.26

I plotted out in the chart when the PSEi hit all time high and when it went back to retest it. The significance of the retest is not only how many times 8000 has been touched but also how often and how soon the market went for it. The first time the PSEi hit 8000 was on 3/30/2015 and it dropped back down below 8000 on 4/16/2015. The second retest was on 7/14/16, that means it took more than a year for the market to go back to 8000.

The market flirted longer this time, about a month. After dropping down on 8/18/16, it took the market less than a year go back to 8000. This time the market has been flirting around 8000 for more than 3 months already. Each time the market pulls back, it only takes a few weeks for it to go back and touch 8000 again.

The movement of the market is showing bullishness. A lot of people may view it as hesitation. Yes, that’s certainly the “feel” of the index but given the pattern of behaviour, it is actually showing more aggressiveness than weakness. This means that traders and investors should consider holding on to key bullish issues than taking profit because prices may fly as soon as the PSEi takes out 8140.

CREDITS TO: Investagram for the charting platform

PSEi Review

 Posted by at 6:08 PM  Global Equities
Jun 242017
 

Market has again flirted with the 8,000 for the past two weeks only for us to find it pulling back again. Last week’s pullback seems to be telling us that the breakout won’t be anywhere soon.

PSEi June 23 2017 close

Some traders may view our pullback toppish-looking but given the economic fundamentals that we have, we see a definite breakout to happen within 6 months time. Aughost is just around the corner. Will the market breakout in a time when most people least expect it to happen? If not, the quarter-end bulls will most likely be the one to push it beyond 8,000.

Short-term, we may see deeper corrections even to as low as 7,100-7,500. Long-term the market is generally locked in a huge consolidation.

The most important principle to remember is that the more times the resistance is touched, the more significant it is and the more powerful the resulting move will be. 8,000 isn’t a tough resistance to break. The market has touched it and flirted around it for a couple of weeks 3x times in the past 2 years. I believe the strong breakout of 8,000 is just a matter of time.

Property Stocks Review

 Posted by at 11:37 PM  Global Equities
Jun 142017
 

The pullback of the index from 8,000 is giving us an opportunity to enter into blue chip property stocks like ALI. In the weekly view, price has been making higher highs and higher lows. Should ALI be able to make a lower low and close low, then we may see a significant pullback hopefully to bargain price around 38.00 to 33.00

Screen Shot 2017-06-14 at 22.26.19
 
Co-blue chip property stock SMPH has quite a similar movement with ALI. Pullback to bargain levels 31.55 to 28.00 would be great entry areas

Screen Shot 2017-06-14 at 22.31.42
 
MEG seems to be ahead in price correction. Entry levels start at 4.00 to 3.40

Screen Shot 2017-06-14 at 22.37.44
 

Hot stock MRC made a run last week to resume its uptrend. There are two ways to get in. Any correction to 0.40 to 0.33 would be the nearest level for a quick trade. However, if it breaks the recent low at 0.32, then the best level for entry would be the range of 0.25 to 0.19.
Continue reading »

May 222017
 

Gaming companies BLOOM, MCP and PLC has received a lot of boost from the market for the past year. RWM seems to be lagging behind as it continues its bottom formation although there are signs that it’s build momentum to breakout. LR is still on a spiral down without signs of recovery yet.
 
Entry levels in BLOOM as it pulls back to consolidate in the near term:
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.25.50
 
BLOOM’s weekly view. Major resistance is at 13 to 14 levels:
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.26.52
 
MCP bounced off 38.2% retracement last week but it doesn’t discount possibility of a pull back. Here are entry levels on MCP:Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.28.53
 
MCP’s weekly view. It continues to trend upwards. Major resistance at 11.00
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.31.35
 
PLC’s daily is show a near term consolidation. Pull back can be deeper than the existing lows which will serve as good bargain levels.
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.33.23
 
PLC in weekly view. 1.88 to 2.00 seems to be the next major selling areas.Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.36.08
 
RWM has plunged deep but seems to have bottomed out since late 2015. 4.00 is the major resistance for now. Break of 4.00 may cause this to trend.
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.37.30
 
For a swing trader, the recent strong move of RWM signals momentum. Pull back has reached 61.8% retrace. Good for a short term trade.Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.39.34
 
LR seems to be making lower highs in the weekly. Recent move or LR kept it from making a new low. Could this be the start of it’s bottom formation?
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.41.08
 
LR daily view is showing a good setup for swing traders. 4.00 to 3.75 seems to be great entry points.
Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 14.43.42
 
Given the scenario, BLOOM, MCP and PLC are good candidates for swing trades. RWM may be good for a position trade. LR is still good for quick trades although riskier than the leading 3 gaming companies.

May 182017
 

The financial sector has been gaining ground recently. BDO, BPI and MBT doesn’t seem to have an opportunity for us to get in with a pull back, much as well UBP. Here are 4 banks that I’ve noticed violating the higher high and higher low movement in the near term. They are currently looking for a level of support from the market.

I plotted the fibonacci levels and possible role reversal support. Take your pick as to where you would want to start buying. You can always split your buying into different tranches to apply money and risk management.
 
EW – Eastwest Bank
2017-05-18 EW
 
PBB – Philippine Business Bank
2017-05-18 PBB
 
PNB – Philippine National Bank
2017-05-18 PNB
 
RCB- Rizal Commercial Bank
2017-05-18 RCB

May 292016
 

Over the week I posted a chart of Philex Mining. Here, let’s see what the index is doing.

mining-2016-0529

It seems that has started to bottom out. However, the bottoming process doesn’t seem convincing enough because of the lack of a higher high. The higher low is there but the higher high will give us the evidence that the bears are laying it back. 12000 is a level being tough to break but with the bulls having hit this role reversal resistance 2-3 times already is making it weak.

For now, position and swing should still be taking a back seat and wait for further developments but the assuming investors may be interested in accumulation.